Tesla (TSLA) is about to launch Q3 2024 monetary outcomes on Wednesday, October 23, after the markets shut. As common, a convention name and Q&A with Tesla’s administration are scheduled after the outcomes.
Right here, we’ll take a look at what the road and retail buyers anticipate for the quarterly outcomes.
Tesla Q3 2024 deliveries
Elon Musk says that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics firm, however its automotive enterprise nonetheless drives its financials.
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q3 2024 automobile manufacturing and deliveries:
| Manufacturing | Deliveries | Topic to working lease accounting | |
| Mannequin 3/Y | 443,668 | 439,975 | 3% |
| Different Fashions | 26,128 | 22,915 | 1% |
| Complete | 469,796 | 462,890 | 3% |
The deliveries have been roughly consistent with Wall Avenue’s expectations.
Now that vitality storage is beginning to contribute to Tesla’s income extra meaningfully, the corporate has additionally began sharing deployment in its quarterly supply and manufacturing numbers.
Tesla confirmed that it deployed 6.9 GWh of vitality storage capability in Q3 2024.
Tesla Q3 2024 income
For income, analysts typically have a reasonably good concept of what to anticipate, because of the supply numbers, and now the vitality storage deployment information.
Nonetheless, Tesla’s common worth per automobile is altering so much as of late as a consequence of frequent worth cuts and reductions throughout many markets, which makes issues tougher.
The Wall Avenue consensus for this quarter is $25.468 billion, and Estimize, the monetary estimate crowdsourcing web site, predicts a slighty greater income of $25.541 billion.
Listed here are the predictions for Tesla’s income over the previous two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Avenue consensus in grey, and precise outcomes are in inexperienced:
Final quarter, Tesla achieved a major $1 billion beat on income expectations.
Curiously, the expectations at the moment are roughly the identical income as Tesla achieved final quarter regardless of Tesla delivering nearly 20,000 extra automobiles.
The distinction makers are doubtless the truth that Tesla deployed about 3 GWh much less vitality storage, which contributed $3 billion to income final quarter and the regulatory credit score gross sales, that are onerous to foretell.
Tesla Q3 2024 earnings
Tesla all the time makes an attempt to be marginally worthwhile each quarter because it invests most of its cash into development, and it has been profitable in doing so over the past three years.
Nonetheless, like revenues, it has been tougher to estimate earnings over the past 12 months with worth cuts and backed loans digging into Tesla’s industry-leading gross margins.
For Q3 2024, the Wall Avenue consensus is a acquire of $0.60 per share, which Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction.
Tesla had earnings of $0.66 per share throughout the identical interval final 12 months.
Listed here are the earnings per share over the past two years, the place Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Avenue consensus is in grey, and precise outcomes are in inexperienced:
Tesla has hardly ever crushed EPS estimates over the past 12 months, and the distinction maker is commonly Tesla’s regulatory credit score gross sales.
Different expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst name
Past the monetary outcomes, Tesla all the time offers broader updates and solutions shareholder questions in its shareholder letter and convention name with administration following the discharge of the outcomes.
Tesla gathers questions from shareholders from the “Say Applied sciences” web site.
Listed here are the presently most upvoted questions, that are prone to be answered by administration, and my feedback on them:
Is Tesla nonetheless on observe to ship the extra inexpensive mannequin subsequent 12 months, as talked about by Elon earlier, and the way does it align together with your AI and product roadmap?”
Musk’s common reply to product questions on earnings calls is “this isn’t the place for product bulletins”, however the truth that the query additionally mentions Tesla’s AI shift could lead on him to remark and make clear Tesla’s plans for automobiles with steering wheels.
When can we anticipate Tesla to present us the ~$25K, non-robotaxi, common automobile mannequin?
As we have now beforehand reported, this automobile program was canceled by Musk earlier this 12 months and changed by new automobile applications based mostly on Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y that might be costlier than $25,000, however cheaper than the present ~$40,000 variations of those automobiles.
What’s Tesla doing to alleviate lengthy ready occasions on service facilities ?
Extra of a consumer-related query, however not a foul one. Tesla is certainly having points with unacceptable wait occasions at service facilities in some areas. It has been a recurring downside for Tesla, nevertheless it grew to become an even bigger downside with the layoffs earlier this 12 months.
If Musk offers once more his reply of “the perfect service isn’t any service”, individuals are going to start out taking it with a special that means.
What’s the plan for 2025?
That is actually the fourth most upvoted query.
When will Tesla incorporate X and Grok in all the Tesla Autos?
And that is the fifth most upvoted one.
Tesla then takes questions from Wall Avenue analysts, who I hope might be questioning Musk’s all-in wager on self-driving and why Tesla can’t share any information about its FSD program to show the progress it’s claiming to be attaining, however I received’t maintain my breath.
The main focus will doubtless be on gross margins and the way a lot they’re affected by the backed rates of interest and reductions.
Additionally, as the percentages of Trump profitable the elections are growing, I anticipate some will take a look at the potential influence of his insurance policies on Tesla’s very profitable enterprise of promoting regulatory credit.
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