Tesla has revealed its AI product/self-driving roadmap for the subsequent few months, but it surely raises extra questions than it solutions.
Tesla official AI Roadmap with self-driving software program releases
September 2024
- v12.5.2 with ~3x improved miles between essential interventions
- v12.5.2 on AI3 laptop (unified fashions for AI3 and AI4)
- Really Good Summon
- Cybertruck Autopark
- Eye-tracking with sun shades
- Finish-to-Finish community on freeway
- Cybertruck FSD
October 2024
- Unpark, Park and Reverse in FSD
- v13 with ~6x improved miles between essential interventions
Q1 2025
- FSD in Europe (pending regulatory approval)
- FSD in China (pending regulatory approval)
Electrek’s Take
The principle downside is enchancment towards what? Tesla has all the time refused to launch FSD intervention information so we wouldn’t even know if v12.5.2 can obtain a “3x enchancment in miles between essential intervention.”
As we beforehand reported, we do have some crowdsourced information, and Elon Musk acknowledged it positively, so we would as nicely use that since Tesla refuses to launch official information.
For v12.4, the CEO mentioned that it can come with out steering wheel nag and it will likely be capable of drive “5 to 10x extra miles per intervention“.
v12.4 by no means made it to a large launch and v12.5 was purported to go vast launch final month and it solely made it to about 5% of the FSD fleet the final time I checked.
Now, as a substitute of a 5 to 10x enhance on v12.4, which was a flop, he’s now speaking a couple of “~3x enchancment” this month with the discharge of v12.5.
Let’s examine the info thus far. Primarily based on the crowdsourced information, the typical of the v12.5.1 variations is 32 miles between disengagement and 128 miles between crucial disengagement.
This compares to 30 miles between disengagement and 189 miles between crucial disengagement for v12.3.6, which is the final FSD model that went into a large launch earlier this yr:
Take into account that to realize Tesla’s promise of an unsupervised self-driving system, it could possible should be at between 50,000 and 100,000 miles between crucial disengagement, aka 390x over the present information.
Primarily based on Elon’s new timeline and in comparison with this information, we needs to be at round ~400 miles between “essential interventions ” by the tip of the month.
The time period “essential interventions” can be problematic and raises questions.
The crowdsourced information can be attempting to tell apart “crucial” disengagements and it is sensible since many disengagements don’t have anything to do with the extent of security in FSD. Some disengagement are on account of consolation and frustration on the motive force’s half.
With v12.5.1, a variety of the disengagement must do with navigation errors and velocity. The previous, Tesla will definitely want to repair. The latter is extra problematic because it truly affect the info.
Many FSD drivers complain that the newest replace is drives extraordinarily sluggish. This could assist with the efficiency and scale back crucial disengagement, but it surely is not going to assist total disengagement as many drivers simply develop pissed off, myself included, and take management of the car to start out driving at extra affordable speeds.
So sure, as per my headline, this roadmap brings extra questions than it solutions primarily on account of the truth that Tesla refuses to launch intervention information and but, it makes use of will increase within the metric to trace progress.
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