Gene Munster and Brian Baker from Deepwater shared their exceptions for Tesla’s robotaxi occasion. The TSLA analysts predict the corporate will unveil a stripped-down Mannequin 3 in the course of the Robotaxi occasion.
Deepwater analysts imagine Tesla will unveil three automobiles in the course of the ‘We, Robotic’ occasion: the Mannequin 2, Cybervan, and Cybercab or robotaxi.
Munster theorizes that the Mannequin 2 will likely be a stripped-down model of the Mannequin 3 as a result of Elon Musk delayed Tesla’s Robotaxi occasion to make “vital adjustments“ to the cybercab car. The TSLA bull causes that if Musk continues to be making adjustments to the design of the cybercab (aka robotaxi), then manufacturing will seemingly get pushed again as effectively.
In a latest Deepwater notice, Munster and Baker write that Tesla will seemingly concentrate on automobiles nearing manufacturing for the occasion however tease upcoming merchandise just like the Cybervan and Optimus. Munster expects Tesla Mannequin 2 manufacturing to start out in late 2025, which he notes is later than Elon Musk’s estimate in the course of the Q2 2024 earnings name.
“We received’t go a lot into the product roadmap right here as a result of that’s reserved for product announcement occasions. However we’re on observe to ship a extra reasonably priced mannequin within the first half of subsequent yr,” Musk mentioned within the second quarter.
The Mannequin 2 is anticipated to start out at $25,000. Beneath are Munster’s expectations for robotaxi, Mannequin 2, and the Cybervan.
1. Robotaxi: I anticipate we’ll see a bodily prototype of the Robotaxi. We additionally imagine the mannequin can have a futuristic really feel, like that of the Cybertruck, with no steering wheel, pedals, or mirrors. Moreover, the reveal will embrace a “demo” of the Robotaxi in motion, summoned by the Tesla ride-hailing app and displaying off its autonomous capabilities by maneuvering some type of observe or route.
2. Mannequin 2: The $25k Mannequin 2 (aka Mannequin A) will likely be previewed with no working prototype. I anticipate this car that will share similarities with the Robotaxi. Whereas Mannequin 2 can have a steering wheel, pedals, and mirrors, it received’t require FSD to function. The physique will likely be distinguishable from the Robotaxi, however total will likely be on the identical manufacturing as Robotaxi.
3. Cybervan: In an analogous shock to the up to date Roadster driving out of the again of the Semi on the Semi launch, I anticipate Elon will unveil plans for a completely autonomous passenger van (Robotaxi XL for 8-10 folks). Whereas the passenger van will likely be gentle on Tesla’s signature design, it will likely be heavy on leveraging autonomy for the ride-hailing imaginative and prescient of reasonably priced transportation. This car will likely be centered on dense city areas and will play a job in the way forward for public transportation, which we estimate expands the ride-hailing addressable market by 20%.
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